This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

A mere 60 days prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

A Touchline Reaction of Triumph

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.

According to Opta, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against Manchester United.

His opener originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

An Unstoppable Force

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

  • The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
  • The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.

Carl Myers
Carl Myers

A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets and statistical modeling.